Now blogging at diego's weblog. See you over there!

wrong paradigm, michael

CNET's Michael Kanellos has an opinion piece on currently about what will, in his mind, define the next decade (technologically speaking, that is.):

The '60s and '70s were the decades of the mainframe. The '80s made up the decade of client-server computing. The '90s were the Internet years. Now we're entering the decade of the electronic butler.
This is complete, utter nonsense. Note that the other three "trends" are networking trends, rather than whatever trend the "electronic butler" falls in (no, not agents). Clearly there are other things going on, aside from networking, and they have their own trends. In networking, the next trend is going to be true peer-to-peer... self-organization at every level (client side, server side, middleware, semantic--yes, semantic, etc). The networking layer of autonomous computing so to speak. Even if self-organization wasn't the big trend of this decade, as I think it is, "electronic butlers" still wouldn't be it. They won't be deployed in time. Let's be realistic here. We've been talking about bluetooth since 1997 or whenever, and only this year it started to get reasonably deployed. Desktop PCs don't even come with Bluetooth built-in yet. "The Age of Automation" will certainly come, but not within the next five years. People will be too concerned with things like the Playstation 3 (est. release date: 2005) to pay mind to that. I wouldn't mind, however, a cheaper, upgraded version of AIBO.

Categories: technology
Posted by diego on July 31 2003 at 5:54 PM

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